Spotting a trend#
uptrend, downtrend, higher highs
An uptrend is a series of higher highs and higher lows, a downtrend a series of lower highs and lower lows. In between is the sideways phase, where highs and lows do not shift clearly.
In the screenerThe screener sums up the trend as
▲ UP,
▼ DN or
→ FL (flat), derived from the EMA stack, plus trend strength via
ADX: from 25 a trend counts as clear.
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Support & resistance#
support, resistance, key levels
Support is a price area where buyers were recently strong enough to stop a decline. Resistance is an area where sellers stopped a rise. The more often a level holds, the more market participants watch it.
In the screenerThe screener calculates support and resistance as the low and high of the last 50 trading days and uses them in its analysis.
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Golden cross & death cross#
EMA 50 / 200 crossover
A golden cross happens when the 50-day average crosses above the 200-day average, a death cross when it crosses below. Both mark a change in the medium-term trend, but with a clear delay.
In the screenerThe screener does not wait for the cross itself. It checks the order of price, EMA20 and EMA50 and the position relative to the EMA200 every day; in the swing horizon a call below the EMA200 costs one point.
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Breakout & pullback#
breakout, pullback, retest
A breakout is a close above resistance or below support, ideally on higher volume. A pullback is the return of price to the broken level, which then often switches roles: former resistance becomes support.
In the screenerTrend setups in the screener follow the trend direction. Fade setups trade a stretch beyond the Bollinger Bands back towards the average, reversal setups the counter move after a shock day.
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Price gap#
gap up, gap down, opening gap
A gap appears when a stock opens clearly above the previous day's high or below its low, usually after news outside trading hours such as earnings. On the chart an empty area remains between the two days.
In the screenerA day with a move of at least 5 % or 2.5 times the
ATR counts as a shock day. If it comes with earnings, the screener treats it as a fundamental repricing and caps reversal signals at a score of 2.
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Stop-loss#
stop, ATR stop, trailing stop
A stop-loss defines in advance at which price a position is closed if the trade does not work. It limits the loss and takes the decision out of the moment when emotions are strongest.
In the screenerFor options the screener uses a stop on the premium (−50 %) and a time exit at 7 DTE. For reversal setups the low of the shock day marks the level below which the setup is invalidated.
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Risk-reward ratio#
R:R, reward to risk
The risk-reward ratio compares the possible gain up to the target with the possible loss down to the stop. A ratio of 3 means three dollars of possible gain for every dollar at risk.
In the screenerFor option setups the screener sets target and stop as fixed percentages of the premium, for example +50 % and −50 %. Measured on the premium, the ratio is about 1 to 1, plus the time exit.
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Position size#
position sizing, 1 % rule
Position size decides how many shares or contracts you buy. A common approach is to derive it from risk: how much of the account may be lost if the stop is hit?
In the screenerThe screener does not size positions; it shows one example setup per symbol. How much you commit is your decision, which is also why the setups are not recommendations.
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